📍Politics·NationalCloses Dec 31 · Results Jan 1
Will Sumar formally announce and endorse Irene Montero as its candidate for Spain's 2027 general election?
33%
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594 bets · 17.6K credits6
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Live prediction markets about Spain. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
63%
crowd accuracy
168/267
right calls
21
open questions
Biggest miss
Will a Spanish man be one of the men's singles semifinalists at the 2026 US Open?
NoThe crowd was 84% sure, and they got it wrong.
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Will Sumar formally announce and endorse Irene Montero as its candidate for Spain's 2027 general election?
The crowd's YES odds since Sep 21
33%
Yes
Open questions21
📍Politics·NationalCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will the Sindicato de Inquilinas call a nationwide general strike in Spain?
46%
Stable · last 24h
528 bets · 15.6K credits4
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Oct 30 · Results Nov 1
Will Spain carry out any official repatriations to Morocco of migrants who entered Ceuta around July 30–31?
71%
Stable · last 24h
471 bets · 16.6K credits5
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📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 24 · Results Nov 26
Will Félix Bolaños get access to the full case file for his complaint against judge Juan Carlos Peinado?
49%
Stable · last 24h
471 bets · 11.6K credits3
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 29 · Results Nov 30
Will Podemos formally announce it will join the Frente Amplio list that names Ada Colau as the coalition's candidate?
46%
Stable · last 24h
443 bets · 8.5K credits1
Details →- Will Carles Puigdemont be granted amnesty?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 1443 predictions40%Yes
- Will Sumar adopt open primaries to choose its candidate for Spain's 2027 general election?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 1430 predictions24%Yes
- Will a public ICPEN report on the global influencer-advertising sweep include country-level results for Spain?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 1424 predictions22%Yes
- Will Jordi Turull be granted amnesty by the Spanish Constitutional Court?Closes Nov 30 · Results Dec 1421 predictions37%Yes
- Plex: Última partida: Will any contestants be publicly named?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 1418 predictions46%Yes
- Will the Mossos d'Esquadra file a court request to trace online communications to identify who called or organized the Barcelona protest that led to disturbances?Closes Oct 29 · Results Oct 30143 predictions20%Yes
- Will the identities of the 163,020 people covered by the 'ley de nietos' be submitted to Spain's Supreme Court?Closes Oct 28 · Results Oct 2979 predictions84%Yes
How it turned out268
- Will any area in Spain be under an AEMET 'aviso naranja' or 'rojo' for rissagas on August 28?Yes
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 29 - Will a formal 'recurso' be filed with Spain's Constitutional Court to challenge Fernando Grande‑Marlaska's refusal to appear before the Spanish Senate?No
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 28 - Will Spain relocate at least 500 female migrant minors from Ceuta to the Spanish mainland?No
The crowd was 75% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 28 - Will Spain open a criminal investigation into José María Figaredo for urging people to 'cazar' migrants?No
The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 28 - Will any area in Spain be put on 'aviso naranja' or 'aviso rojo' (orange/red heat warning) on August 27?No
The crowd was 62% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 28 - Will any area in Spain have an 'aviso naranja' (orange warning) or 'aviso rojo' (red warning) for thunderstorms on 26 August?No
The crowd was 60% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 27 - Will any area in Spain be under an orange or red extreme-heat alert on 25 August?No
The crowd was 50% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 26 - Will Renfe accumulate at least 111 hours of train delays on August 25?Yes
The crowd was 57% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 26 - Will any scheduled passenger flights to or from Palma de Mallorca (PMI) be cancelled by storms or strong winds on August 21?No
The crowd was 80% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 25 - Did Spain record a new all-time high temperature during the 2026 fourth heatwave?No
The crowd was 71% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 25