📍Politics·NationalCloses Dec 31 · Results Jan 1
Will Sumar formally announce and endorse Irene Montero as its candidate for Spain's 2027 general election?
33%
Stable · last 24h
594 bets · 17.6K credits6
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Live prediction markets about Spain. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
63%
crowd accuracy
168/267
right calls
21
open questions
Biggest miss
Will a Spanish man be one of the men's singles semifinalists at the 2026 US Open?
NoThe crowd was 84% sure, and they got it wrong.
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Will Sumar formally announce and endorse Irene Montero as its candidate for Spain's 2027 general election?
The crowd's YES odds since Sep 21
33%
Yes
Open questions21
📍Politics·NationalCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will the Sindicato de Inquilinas call a nationwide general strike in Spain?
46%
Stable · last 24h
528 bets · 15.6K credits4
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Oct 30 · Results Nov 1
Will Spain carry out any official repatriations to Morocco of migrants who entered Ceuta around July 30–31?
71%
Stable · last 24h
471 bets · 16.6K credits5
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📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 24 · Results Nov 26
Will Félix Bolaños get access to the full case file for his complaint against judge Juan Carlos Peinado?
49%
Stable · last 24h
471 bets · 11.6K credits3
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 29 · Results Nov 30
Will Podemos formally announce it will join the Frente Amplio list that names Ada Colau as the coalition's candidate?
46%
Stable · last 24h
443 bets · 8.5K credits1
Details →- Will Carles Puigdemont be granted amnesty?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 1443 predictions40%Yes
- Will Sumar adopt open primaries to choose its candidate for Spain's 2027 general election?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 1430 predictions24%Yes
- Will a public ICPEN report on the global influencer-advertising sweep include country-level results for Spain?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 1424 predictions22%Yes
- Will Jordi Turull be granted amnesty by the Spanish Constitutional Court?Closes Nov 30 · Results Dec 1421 predictions37%Yes
- Plex: Última partida: Will any contestants be publicly named?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 1418 predictions46%Yes
- Will the Mossos d'Esquadra file a court request to trace online communications to identify who called or organized the Barcelona protest that led to disturbances?Closes Oct 29 · Results Oct 30143 predictions20%Yes
- Will the identities of the 163,020 people covered by the 'ley de nietos' be submitted to Spain's Supreme Court?Closes Oct 28 · Results Oct 2978 predictions83%Yes
How it turned out268
- Will both minors arrested over the Manresa fatal stabbing be sent to closed‑regime internment?Yes
The crowd was 54% sure, and they got it wrong.
Sep 4 - Will any area in Spain be put on AEMET 'aviso naranja' or 'aviso rojo' (orange or red alert) for extreme heat on 3 September?Yes
The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 4 - Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve an urgent €168,000,000 aid package for Ceuta on September 1?No
The crowd was 58% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 3 - Will public concentrations called by the FEMP in support of Ceuta take place in at least three Spanish provincial capitals on September 2?Yes
The crowd was 82% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 3 - Will any area in Spain be under an 'aviso naranja' or 'aviso rojo' (orange or red alert) for extreme high temperatures on 2 September?Yes
The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 3 - Will the Spanish Senate adopt a motion of reproach against Interior Minister Fernando Grande‑Marlaska?No
The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 1 - Will the PP be #1 in Spain's national poll on August 31?Yes
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 31 - Will the Spanish Senate or any parliamentary group file a constitutional appeal over the government's refusal to let Interior Minister Fernando Grande‑Marlaska appear?No
The crowd was 50% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 31 - Will Renfe have at least 265 long-distance trains delayed on August 30?Yes
The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 31 - Will any area in Spain be put on AEMET "aviso naranja" (orange alert) or "aviso rojo" (red alert) for Rissagas on 29 August?No
The crowd was 51% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 30