Will Spain relocate at least 500 female migrant minors from Ceuta to the Spanish mainland?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than August 26, 2026, at least two independent national or regional Spanish news outlets credibly report, or the Ministerio de Juventud e Infancia or other Spanish government agencies officially confirm, that 500 or more female migrant minors were physically transferred from Ceuta to locations on the Spanish mainland. Reports or official records must explicitly state a cumulative total of 500 or more female minors transferred. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 26, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 27, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 79%, based on 7 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

79%

Predictions made

7

Credits staked

204

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 19, 2026

Closes

Aug 26, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 27, 2026

Resolution source

efe.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 26, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 27, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 79% and NO 21%, based on 7 predictions and 204 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against efe.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Spain relocate at least 500 female migrant minors from Ceuta to the Spanish mainland?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Spain relocate at least 500 female migrant minors from Ceuta to the Spanish mainland?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.