Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

24%
-1% last 24h

34%
Stable · last 24h
YES if no later than 6:00 PM CEST on August 27, 2026, two or more independent news organisations report credibly that a formal 'recurso' was filed with Spain's Tribunal Constitucional explicitly challenging Fernando Grande‑Marlaska's refusal to appear before the Spanish Senate. Reports must state an actual filing that refers to the minister's non‑attendance. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 27, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 34%, based on 4 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThere's a solid chance this won't happen. With the deadline approaching, credible reports need to confirm a formal recurso has been filed, and as of now, that doesn’t seem likely.

24%
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41%
Stable · last 24h

26%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h

64%
Stable · last 24h

18%
Stable · last 24h
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