Will Tadej Pogačar win the Vuelta a España overall?

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83%
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YES if, when the men's singles semifinalists at the 2026 US Open are determined, at least one player listed with nationality Spain (ESP) in the official tournament listing appears among the four semifinalists, according to the official US Open men's singles draw/results on usopen.org. A player who advances to a semifinal by walkover or retirement counts. If the tournament is cancelled before semifinalists are determined, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against rtve.es. For now, the crowd puts YES at 83%, based on 60 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current form of Spanish players and their success, I think at least one will reach the semifinals. The odds favor them in a major like the US Open.

22%
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35%
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76%
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55%
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65%
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61%
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