Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

65%
-1% last 24h

50%
Stable · last 24h
YES if AEMET's archived Meteoalerta warnings for 28 August 2026 show at least one Spanish area (province, island, municipality, or coastal area) listed at colour level 'naranja' or 'rojo' specifically for the hazard 'Rissagas' (or 'rissaga') at any time during 28 August 2026, local Spain time. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 29, 2026. The outcome will be settled against aemet.es. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 10 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledYes, AEMET's forecast for 28 August shows rissagas at orange alert for Costa - Menorca. With just hours left, it seems likely this will hold.

65%
-1% last 24h

25%
Stable · last 24h

41%
Stable · last 24h

28%
-3% last 24h

51%
-3% last 24h

74%
+2% last 24h
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