Prediction & Forecasting Guides
Clear, in-depth guides on prediction markets, forecasting, and getting better at calling what happens next.
Prediction Markets, Explained
A prediction market turns a question about the future into a tradable price that reads as a probability. Here is how they work, why the price is a forecast, and where to try one.
8 min readPrediction Markets vs Polls: Which Is More Accurate?
Prediction markets usually match or beat polls, because they measure expectation rather than opinion and update in real time. Here is the evidence, and the cases where polls still win.
8 min readWhy Prediction Markets Are Accurate
Prediction markets are accurate because they aggregate scattered information, reward being right with money, and update instantly. Here are the mechanisms, the evidence, and the limits.
9 min readThe Wisdom of Crowds Explained
The wisdom of crowds is the finding that a large group of independent guesses, averaged together, usually beats almost any single expert. Here is why it works, the three conditions it needs, and how prediction markets put it to use.
8 min readHow Prediction Market Prices Are Set
A prediction market price is set the same way any price is: by what buyers and sellers agree to trade at. Here is how that happens through order books and automated market makers like LMSR.
10 min readThe History of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets run from Wall Street betting rings in the 1800s through the Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade, and PredictIt to Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Here is the full story.
9 min readAre Prediction Markets Legal?
Whether prediction markets are legal depends on your country and on whether real money is involved. Here is the current picture in the US, why the law differs internationally, and why a free game sidesteps the question.
8 min readCorporate Prediction Markets
Do companies use prediction markets internally? Google, Ford, and HP have. Here is the real evidence on how well internal corporate prediction markets work, and why they stayed rare.
8 min readFutarchy Explained
Futarchy is a proposed form of government where voters choose what to value and prediction markets choose the policies expected to deliver it. Here is the mechanism, a worked example, where it is being tried, and the main criticisms.
10 min readHow Forecasting Works
Forecasting is the skill of assigning honest probabilities to uncertain events and being scored on them. Learn base rates, calibration, the Brier score, and how to practice.
9 min readHow to Get Better at Predicting the News
Predicting the news is a trainable skill. Follow this practical routine, base rates, small updates, honest scoring, and deliberate practice, to sharpen your calls week by week.
8 min readBase Rates and Reference-Class Forecasting
A base rate is how often an outcome happens across a whole class of similar cases. Reference-class forecasting starts from that frequency instead of the vivid details of one case. Here is why it works and how to do it.
9 min readBayesian Thinking for Forecasters
Bayesian thinking is the math of updating beliefs: start with a prior, weigh the evidence, land on a posterior. Here is Bayes’ theorem in plain words, a worked numeric example, and why it makes you a better forecaster.
10 min readForecast Calibration Explained
Forecast calibration is the match between your confidence and reality: you are well calibrated when things you call 70% likely happen about 70% of the time. Here is how to visualize it, measure it, and train it.
9 min readThe Brier Score, Explained
The Brier score measures how good a probability forecast was by squaring the gap between the chance you gave and what actually happened. Here is the formula in plain words, a worked example, and how to read it.
8 min readCognitive Biases in Forecasting
Overconfidence, confirmation bias, anchoring, the availability heuristic, hindsight bias, and the Dunning-Kruger effect quietly wreck predictions. Here is how each one works, with a concrete example and a way to counter it.
8 min readSuperforecasters, Explained
Superforecasters are ordinary people who forecast world events far better than average, and even beat some experts. Here is who they are, how they think, and how to become one.
8 min readFox vs Hedgehog: Two Styles of Forecasting
The fox vs hedgehog distinction sorts forecasters into two thinking styles: foxes hold many small ideas and stay self-critical, hedgehogs bet everything on one big theory. Here is why foxes forecast better, and how to think like one.
9 min readBest Prediction Apps (2026)
A practical roundup of the best prediction apps in 2026, from free no-money games to real-money exchanges and forecasting platforms, so you can pick the right one for how you want to play.
9 min read