Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

77%
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51%
Stable · last 24h
YES if AEMET's official archived warnings for 25 August 2026 show at least one Spanish area with an aviso at orange or red level specifically for 'extreme high temperatures / heat' at any time during that calendar day, otherwise NO. Only warnings that explicitly identify the hazard as extreme high temperatures/heat count. Warnings that are in effect for any part of 25 August (including those that start before or end after that day) count, and widely corroborated Spanish reporting that reproduces AEMET's aviso may be used as supporting evidence.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against aemet.es. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
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77%
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26%
Stable · last 24h

29%
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69%
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77%
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60%
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