Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

29%
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18%
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YES if, no later than 18:00 on August 25, 2026, the Spanish Public Prosecutor's Office (Fiscalía General del Estado) publicly announces it has opened formal investigative proceedings specifically into José María Figaredo's statements calling to 'cazar' migrants. Acceptable evidence includes an official Fiscalía press release or website entry, or reporting by major Spanish news outlets that quote the Fiscalía. If the Fiscalía only says it has received complaints or refers the matter to the police without opening a Fiscalía investigative file, that is NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 18%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the time left and the sensitivity of the issue, the Fiscalía will likely open an investigation. Expect a formal announcement before the deadline.

29%
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63%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h

74%
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18%
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42%
Stable · last 24h
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