Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

25%
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59%
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YES if, no later than August 27, 2026, a formal written constitutional appeal that explicitly challenges the Government’s refusal to allow Interior Minister Fernando Grande‑Marlaska to appear (the 'plantón' described in the EFE 13 Aug 2026 article) is submitted and recorded as lodged with Spain’s Tribunal Constitucional, or is publicly announced as filed by the Tribunal Constitucional or the Senate. Otherwise NO. A parliamentary motion or press complaint without a formal recurso filed with the Tribunal Constitucional does not count. A filing that is later demonstrably never lodged or that is withdrawn before registration counts as NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 28, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 59%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's unlikely this constitutional appeal will happen. With less than two weeks left, a formal filing seems doubtful given the government's strong stance against it.

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19%
Stable · last 24h

29%
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44%
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75%
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15%
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