Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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40%
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YES if, no later than August 31, 2026, two or more independent national or international news outlets credibly report that the Spanish Senate held a plenary vote and adopted a formal motion of reproach specifically directed at Interior Minister Fernando Grande‑Marlaska for refusing to appear as described in the cited EFE article, ideally confirmed by the Spanish Senate's official vote record. Otherwise NO. If the Senate debated but did not adopt the motion, if only a non-binding statement or procedural call was issued, or if a tied vote meant the motion was not adopted, this market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe chances of the Senate actually passing this motion seem slim. With only 16 days left and no solid indicators of a vote, I'm betting against it happening.

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63%
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64%
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83%
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27%
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30%
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