🤖Tech·AICloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will OpenAI publish a public framework for more disclosure about model incidents?
83%
Stable · last 24h
406 bets · 7.3K credits1
Details →Sam Altman
Live prediction markets about Sam Altman. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
65%
crowd accuracy
84/130
right calls
14
open questions
Biggest miss
Will OpenAI's DevDay on September 29 include a public tease, demo, or announcement of creator-focused products?
NoThe crowd was 94% sure, and they got it wrong.
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Open questions14
🤖Tech·AICloses Nov 1
Will OpenAI, Anthropic and Google/DeepMind/Alphabet publish one joint, signed statement committing to coordinate on pacing or to shared limits on AI capability development?
41%
Stable · last 24h
406 bets · 7.8K credits1
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Jan 1
Will a formal enforcement or compliance proceeding be opened against OpenAI over ChatGPT in Canada?
36%
Stable · last 24h
403 bets · 6.8K credits1
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🤖Tech·AICloses Nov 6
Will ChatGPT text be watermarked by default for users in the EU?
70%
Stable · last 24h
227 bets · 8.3K credits3
Details →🤖Tech·AICloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will the Australian government publicly refer OpenAI's June 18 agent breach to the Australian Federal Police?
46%
Stable · last 24h
207 bets · 7.8K credits4
Details →- Will the Montargis (Loiret) municipal election be annulled?Closes Dec 14 · Results Dec 15187 predictions64%Yes
- Will OpenAI's Vercel AI Gateway spend share across top labs be above 15.7% on Oct 28?Closes Oct 29165 predictions39%Yes
- Will OpenAI be the second-best AI agent lab?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 2135 predictions64%Yes
- Will OpenAI Vercel's share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs on Oct 28, 2026 be above 22.0%?Closes Oct 29125 predictions35%Yes
- Will OpenAI Vercel's share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs on Oct 28 be above 18.8%?Closes Oct 29109 predictions77%Yes
- Will the full set of documents Gina Hinojosa requested be publicly released?Closes Nov 44 predictions32%Yes
- Will Hamburg adopt binding Schutzkonzepte requiring schools to protect children and adolescents from sexualized violence?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 21 prediction67%Yes
How it turned out130
- Will Elon Musk post fewer than 40 times on X?No
The crowd was 80% sure, and they got it wrong.
Sep 11 - Will OpenAI start showing ads in ChatGPT's free or 'Go' tiers to users in India?Yes
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 10 - Will John Ternus speak on stage at Apple's iPhone event on September 9?Yes
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 9 - Will Elon Musk post fewer than 40 times on X?Yes
The crowd was 74% sure, and they got it wrong.
Sep 9 - Will OpenAI's share of the AI text-model market be above 20.5%?No
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 7 - Will OpenAI's market share be above 19.0%?Yes
The crowd was 78% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 7 - Will OpenAI's market share be above 20%?No
The crowd was 68% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 7 - Will Elon Musk post fewer than 40 times on X?No
The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.
Sep 7 - Are at least 10,000 migrants still in Ceuta?No
The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.
Sep 5 - Will OpenAI release a model called Astra?No
The crowd was 52% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 4