Will OpenAI's share of the AI text-model market be above 20.5%?

🤖 Context

YES if OpenAI's share on OpenRouter's "AI Market Share" by-model-author ranking for the week of August 31, 2026 is greater than 20.5% as reported at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, August 31, 2026. If OpenRouter lists OpenAI under "Others" or does not separately identify OpenAI's share, the market resolves NO. This mirror market resolves identically to Kalshi's market ticker KXOPENSHARE-26SEP07-20.5 and is final only when Kalshi marks that ticker as finalized with an official YES or NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026. The outcome will be settled against kalshi.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 75%, based on 50 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

75%

Predictions made

50

Credits staked

1,673

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 4, 2026

Closes

Sep 7, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 7, 2026

Resolution source

kalshi.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 75% and NO 25%, based on 50 predictions and 1.7K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against kalshi.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will OpenAI's share of the AI text-model market be above 20.5%?” real-money betting?

No. “Will OpenAI's share of the AI text-model market be above 20.5%?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.