Will OpenAI's market share be above 20%?

🤖 Context

YES if Kalshi's market ticker KXOPENSHARE-26SEP07-20 is shown as 'finalized' and Kalshi's official settlement for that ticker is YES, otherwise NO. Kalshi states the market settles based on OpenRouter's text market share by model author for the week of August 31, 2026 using the Monday 10:00 AM ET updated values. If OpenRouter's published chart groups the author into 'Others' or does not separately identify the author, this contract resolves NO. If Kalshi shows a non-final status on the resolution date, this contract remains unresolved until Kalshi publishes a finalized YES or NO for that ticker.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026. The outcome will be settled against kalshi.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 84%, based on 60 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

84%

Predictions made

60

Credits staked

2,403

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 5, 2026

Closes

Sep 7, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 7, 2026

Resolution source

kalshi.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 84% and NO 16%, based on 60 predictions and 2.4K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against kalshi.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will OpenAI's market share be above 20%?” real-money betting?

No. “Will OpenAI's market share be above 20%?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.