Are at least 10,000 migrants still in Ceuta?

🤖 Context

YES if the Spanish Ministry of Interior publicly issues or is quoted as issuing a single numeric figure of 10,000 or more for the number of migrants currently remaining in Ceuta, either in an official press release, briefing, or statement, or if that same single figure is reported by at least two independent national or international news outlets. This must occur no later than September 4, 2026. If the Ministry only publishes a numeric range whose lower bound is below 10,000 with no single stated figure ≥10,000, or if figures come only from other actors without the Ministry as source, the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 82%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

82%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

225

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 29, 2026

Closes

Sep 3, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 5, 2026

Resolution source

efe.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 82% and NO 18%, based on 8 predictions and 225 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against efe.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Are at least 10,000 migrants still in Ceuta?” real-money betting?

No. “Are at least 10,000 migrants still in Ceuta?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.