📍Politics·NationalCloses Dec 31 · Results Jan 1
Will François Hollande publicly declare he is a candidate for the 2027 French presidential election?
36%
-1% last 24h
8110 bets · 172.4K credits195
Details →Le Monde
Live prediction markets about Le Monde. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
89%
crowd accuracy
25/28
right calls
9
open questions
Biggest miss
Will any lycée in Montreuil be reported as blocked or closed to students on October 13?
NoThe crowd was 82% sure, and they got it wrong.
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Will François Hollande publicly declare he is a candidate for the 2027 French presidential election?
The crowd's YES odds since Sep 8
36%
Yes
Open questions9
📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 15 · Results Nov 16
Will the municipal police officer filmed making racist remarks in Carcassonne be formally charged?
71%
Stable · last 24h
2149 bets · 48.5K credits48
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 15 · Results Nov 16
Will Emmanuel Grégoire formally resign as Mayor of Paris?
9%
Stable · last 24h
368 bets · 13.1K credits4
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📍Politics·NationalCloses Feb 28 · Results Mar 1
Will Raphaël Glucksmann publicly withdraw his candidacy for France's 2027 presidential election?
9%
Stable · last 24h
218 bets · 8.9K credits4
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 30 · Results Dec 1
Will the bill to strengthen protection of the presidential election be adopted?
78%
-1% last 24h
194 bets · 5.8K credits5
Details →- Will the Montargis (Loiret) municipal election be annulled?Closes Dec 14 · Results Dec 15187 predictions64%Yes
- Will the Assemblée nationale's commission d'enquête hold its first public hearing?Closes Nov 15 · Results Nov 16127 predictions84%Yes
- Will Ségolène Royal publicly withdraw from the Socialist Party primary for the 2027 presidential election?Results Nov 1227 predictions27%Yes
- Will the RN group file or publicly back a motion of censure against the government over the 2027 budget?Results Dec 1209 predictions63%Yes
How it turned out28
- Will the Millon auction of Brigitte Bardot's belongings take place on September 15?No
The crowd was 73% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 15 - Will French police unions call a nationwide mobilization on September 15?Yes
The crowd was 84% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 15 - Will at least one tornado touch down in metropolitan France?No
The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 9 - Will Pascal Obispo appear on-screen during 'Solidarité incendies' on August 27?Yes
The crowd was 88% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 28 - Did the heatwave that began on July 28 include at least 20 days described as 'fortes chaleurs'?Yes
The crowd was 86% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 21 - Will France's national thermal indicator meet the 'canicule' threshold?Yes
The crowd was 96% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 17 - Will the wildfires in Landes burn more than 1,000 hectares?Yes
The crowd was 92% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 16 - Will the Massif du Claps wildfire have burned more than 600 hectares?No
The crowd was 77% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 12