Will EU leaders publicly announce they agreed to adopt the planned 22nd sanctions package against Russia?

32%
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82%
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Resolved: No
Results Oct 13YES if one or more secondary schools (lycées) located inside the commune of Montreuil are publicly reported as being blocked or closed to students on October 13, 2026; otherwise NO. • The report must explicitly state the school was blocked or that students prevented normal classes from taking place. • A qualifying report is either an explicit on‑the‑record statement by the Mairie de Montreuil or by the Préfecture de la Seine‑Saint‑Denis, or a clear report by at least two independent major news organisations (for example AFP, Franceinfo, Le Monde, Le Parisien) that state a lycée in Montreuil was blocked that day. • Source: Mairie de Montreuil; Préfecture de la Seine‑Saint‑Denis; major news organisations (e.g. AFP, Franceinfo, Le Monde, Le Parisien).
How markets are built and settled82%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 82% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: NO Although alternative media and political networks report a blockade at the Jean-Jaurès high school in Montreuil on October 13, 2026, the strict criteria set by the guidelines are not met: no official statement from the Montreuil Town Hall or the Seine-Saint-Denis Prefecture, nor at least two reports from major independent reference media (such as AFP, Le Monde, Le Parisien, or Franceinfo) have formally indicated a blockage or closure of this establishment at
Source: la-croix.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that the date is tomorrow, and the likelihood of last-minute reports from authorities or major media is low, I doubt there will be an official closure. No clear signals so far.

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40%
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64%
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33%
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49%
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