Will the RN group file or publicly back a motion of censure against the government over the 2027 budget?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than November 30, 2026, the RN parliamentary group in the Assemblée nationale either (a) formally submits a motion of censure recorded in the Assemblée nationale’s official registers or website that references or targets the Budget 2027 proposals, or (b) publishes an explicit RN group statement publicly declaring it will formally support or sign a specific filed motion of censure concerning the Budget 2027 proposals. Resolution will be based on the Assemblée nationale’s official records or reporting from major French news agencies such as AFP, Franceinfo, or Le Monde. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 210 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

63%

Predictions made

210

Credits staked

7,268

Comments

2

Opened

Sep 22, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Dec 1, 2026

Resolution source

franceinfo.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Dec 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 63% and NO 37%, based on 210 predictions and 7.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against franceinfo.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the RN group file or publicly back a motion of censure against the government over the 2027 budget?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the RN group file or publicly back a motion of censure against the government over the 2027 budget?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.