Did the heatwave that began on July 28 include at least 20 days described as 'fortes chaleurs'?

🤖 Context

YES if Météo‑France's official national bulletin, situation report, or dataset explicitly states that the heatwave episode that began on July 28 included 20 or more days described as 'fortes chaleurs' no later than August 20, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise NO. Corroborating reports from national wire services or major French outlets (AFP, Franceinfo, Le Monde) are acceptable if they explicitly attribute that count, and if Météo‑France uses a different episode definition the market still requires an explicit attribution of "20 days" (or more) to the same episode by Météo‑France or the named outlets.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 68%, based on 78 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

68%

Predictions made

78

Credits staked

2,166

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 16, 2026

Closes

Aug 19, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 21, 2026

Resolution source

tf1info.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 68% and NO 32%, based on 78 predictions and 2.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against tf1info.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Did the heatwave that began on July 28 include at least 20 days described as 'fortes chaleurs'?” real-money betting?

No. “Did the heatwave that began on July 28 include at least 20 days described as 'fortes chaleurs'?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.