France
Live prediction markets about France. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
75%
crowd accuracy
293/393
right calls
49
open questions
Biggest miss
Will Bigflo & Oli’s €100,000 ZEvent donation be publicly listed as received?
NoThe crowd was 95% sure, and they got it wrong.
Hot right now
Will a bill be filed to ban or penalize deliberate lies in politics?
The crowd's YES odds since Sep 8
15%
Yes
Open questions49
- Will the Assemblée nationale's commission d'enquête hold its first public hearing?Closes Nov 15 · Results Nov 16187 predictions41%Yes
- Will France publish a national autism strategy?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 1164 predictions34%Yes
- Will Edouard Philippe meet Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau and François Bayrou together in one meeting?Closes Oct 31 · Results Dec 1151 predictions47%Yes
- Will 'Egalité et Réconciliation' be dissolved by decree?Closes Nov 30120 predictions36%Yes
- Will the PS–Place publique primary rules explicitly allow Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin to run?Closes Oct 31 · Results Dec 199 predictions22%Yes
- Will an official date be announced for new municipal elections in Noisy‑le‑Sec?Closes Nov 30 · Results Dec 186 predictions73%Yes
- Will deputy José Beaurain be placed 'mis en examen' (placed under formal judicial investigation) for alleged diversion of public funds?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 285 predictions38%Yes
- Will at least one of La France Insoumise's 12 niche proposals be debated in the National Assembly plenary on 29 October?Results Oct 30447 predictions90%Yes
- Will France proceed with merging Paris and its Petite Couronne into a single Greater Paris metropolis by end of 2026?Results Dec 31326 predictions27%Yes
- Will 'Le casse du siècle' by Sarah Knafo be #1 on the Edistat best‑selling books in France ranking?Results Oct 30274 predictions28%Yes
- Will a formal judicial investigation be opened that names Marine Le Pen over her 'enfiler son costard en kevlar' remark?Results Nov 14182 predictions8%Yes
- Will 'Chere debbie' by Freida McFadden and Laura Bourgeois be #1 on the Edistat best‑selling books in France on November 6?Results Nov 6143 predictions67%Yes
How it turned out393
- Will a "New This Week" film debut at #1 on the France weekend box office chart for Jul 22–26, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 68% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 28 - Will a French cyclist win a stage at the 2026 Tour de France by July 26, 2026?No
The crowd was 60% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 27 - Will any French rider win a stage after Stage 18 in the 2026 Tour de France?No
The crowd was 82% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 27 - Will Kylian Mbappé come on as a substitute in at least one France match at the 2026 tournament?No
The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 26 - Will any official Météo‑France station in metropolitan France report a daily maximum temperature of at least 40.0 °C on July 18?No
The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 26 - Will any French department be orange or red for thunderstorms on Sunday, July 26, 2026?No
The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.
Jul 26 - Will the Gironde fire be reported as over 1,000 hectares before July 24, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 94% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 25 - Will one or more French départements be marked 'Red' for heat wave on July 22, 2026 at 12:00 CEST?No
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 22 - Will the National Assembly adopt the bill on protecting children in the final plenary (vote solennel) on July 21?Yes
The crowd was 91% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 21 - Will a French judoka win a gold medal at the European Open Senior in Sarajevo on July 18–19, 2026?No
The crowd was 72% sure, and they got it wrong.
Jul 20