ScienceOpened Jul 22 · Results Jul 25

Will the Gironde fire be reported as over 1,000 hectares before July 24, 2026?

94%

Stable · last 24h

📊 350 bettors💎 11.1K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Jul 25

🤖 Context

YES if the Préfecture de la Gironde publishes on its official website (gouv.fr / gironde.gouv.fr) on or before 12:00 PM on July 24, 2026 an official communiqué, situation update, or press release stating a numeric cumulative burned area strictly greater than 1,000 hectares for the same wildfire referenced in the TF1 article. If the Préfecture publishes multiple numeric figures before the cutoff, the number in its latest communiqué at or before 12:00 PM on July 24, 2026 determines the outcome. If the Préfecture gives no numeric figure by the cutoff but the French Ministry of the Interior / Sécurité Civile publishes an official gouv.fr press release giving a numeric burned area greater than 1,000 hectares for the same fire by the cutoff, that also counts as YES. Social media posts or third party news articles do not count. Otherwise NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

94%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 94% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: The official Préfecture de la Gironde website published a situation update titled “Incendie en cours : point de situation à 21h30” (gironde.gouv.fr) which states “Environ 4 800 hectares ont été parcourus par les flammes.” The page includes a downloadable PDF dated 2026-07-23 (point de situation à 21h30), i.e. published before the 12:00 CEST cutoff on 2026-07-24. The reported burned area (~4,800 ha) is strictly greater than 1,000 ha, so the condition in the question is met.

Source: gironde.gouv.fr