🚀Science·SpaceCloses Sep 9
Will the Soyuz 2.1b carrying Progress MS‑35 lift off from Baikonur Site 31/6 on September 9?
31%
-56% last 24h
835 bets · 27.8K credits3
Details →
ScienceOpened Jul 25 · Results Jul 26
Will any French department be orange or red for thunderstorms on Sunday, July 26, 2026?
64%
Stable · last 24h
📊 183 bettors💎 6.1K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 26🤖 Context
YES if Météo‑France's official vigilance bulletin valid for 26 July 2026 and published on or before 6:00 AM CEST on July 26, 2026 shows at least one French department coloured orange or red for the hazard labelled 'orages' (thunderstorms). Otherwise NO. If Météo‑France changes its vigilance labels so a thunderstorm hazard cannot be identified, the market resolves YES if the official vigilance pages for that date show any department flagged orange or red for thunderstorms or storm-related hazards.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No64%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The supplied evidence includes a vigilance map/bulletin labelled as Météo‑France and dated 26/07/2026 03:00 (validité 26/07/2026 03:00–27/07/2026 00:00) showing a national maximum level of "Jaune" and listing 13 departments all at vigilance jaune (with the text noting the end of orange vigilance for "orages" on Corsica). An independent local site (meteo-lyon) updated at 05:47 the same morning likewise reports that the thunderstorm risk is fading to residual showers. No supplied source shows any department coloured orange or red for the hazard "orages" on the Météo‑France bulletin valid for 26 July and published on or before 06:00 CEST that day. Therefore the answer is NO.
Source: meteo-local.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 64%
- Predictions made
- 183
- Credits staked
- 6,123
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 25, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 25, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 26, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- meteo-local.fr, meteo-lyon.net
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🔥@maydrick💠Bet No· 100 💎
Thank you Météo-France 😉
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh, totally going to be orange or red! it’s like summer storm season's calling card. get your umbrellas ready! ☔
Related predictions
See all →🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 9 · Results Sep 12
Will Shishaldin return to 'NORMAL' (back to normal)?
36%
Stable · last 24h
59 bets · 2.2K credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 9 · Results Sep 11
Will at least one tornado touch down in Kaua'i County and be attributed to Hurricane Lowell?
28%
Stable · last 24h
3 bets · 40 credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 10
Will Lowell stop being a hurricane (tropical storm or weaker)?
57%
Stable · last 24h
1 bet · 5 credits1
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Sep 30 · Results Oct 1
Will Sophie Adenot do a fourth spacewalk?
44%
Stable · last 24h
175 bets · 4.6K credits1
Details →🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 9 · Results Sep 12
Will Chile be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?
21%
Stable · last 24h
274 bets · 7.2K credits1
Details →