📍Politics·NationalCloses Dec 31 · Results Jan 1
Will François Hollande publicly declare he is a candidate for the 2027 French presidential election?
36%
-1% last 24h
8289 bets · 176.2K credits200
Details →AFP
Live prediction markets about AFP. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
90%
crowd accuracy
43/48
right calls
13
open questions
Biggest miss
Will Bigflo & Oli’s €100,000 ZEvent donation be publicly listed as received?
NoThe crowd was 95% sure, and they got it wrong.
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Will François Hollande publicly declare he is a candidate for the 2027 French presidential election?
The crowd's YES odds since Sep 8
36%
Yes
Open questions13
📍Politics·NationalCloses Feb 28 · Results Mar 1
Will Raphaël Glucksmann publicly withdraw his candidacy for France's 2027 presidential election?
8%
Stable · last 24h
418 bets · 15.9K credits7
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 15 · Results Nov 16
Will Emmanuel Grégoire formally resign as Mayor of Paris?
8%
Stable · last 24h
369 bets · 13.2K credits4
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🤖Tech·AICloses Nov 30
Will the June 18 OpenAI agent incident be referred to Australia's federal police or prompt a criminal investigation?
30%
Stable · last 24h
355 bets · 14.6K credits4
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 30 · Results Dec 1
Will the bill to strengthen protection of the presidential election be adopted?
77%
-1% last 24h
195 bets · 5.8K credits5
Details →- Will the Montargis (Loiret) municipal election be annulled?Closes Dec 14 · Results Dec 15187 predictions64%Yes
- Will France publish a national autism strategy?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 1162 predictions35%Yes
- Will the Assemblée nationale's commission d'enquête hold its first public hearing?Closes Nov 15 · Results Nov 16159 predictions49%Yes
- Will Christian Duchêne or a representative announce they have filed or will file an appeal against the annulment of the Saint‑Fons municipal election?Closes Nov 14 · Results Nov 15115 predictions43%Yes
- Will Quentin Le Gaillard formally submit his resignation as mayor of Concarneau?Closes Nov 29 · Results Dec 1103 predictions40%Yes
- Will Françoise Gatel convene a meeting described as "réunir toutes les parties prenantes" to find solutions for Corsica?Closes Dec 15 · Results Dec 1652 predictions75%Yes
- Will Ségolène Royal publicly withdraw from the Socialist Party primary for the 2027 presidential election?Results Nov 1227 predictions27%Yes
How it turned out48
- Will Folarin Balogun move away from AS Monaco in a permanent transfer or loan?No
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Sep 2 - Will Enric Mas win Stage 10 of La Vuelta 2026 (Alcaraz → Elche de la Sierra)?No
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 1 - Will any location in one of these 12 French departments record a wind gust of 100 km/h or more on August 26?Yes
The crowd was 73% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 31 - Will Édouard Philippe be in Tourcoing in person for Gérald Darmanin's political 'rentrée' on August 30?Yes
The crowd was 81% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 30 - Will Tadej Pogacar win Stage 6 (Alcossebre → Castello) of La Vuelta 2026?Yes
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 28 - Will Storm Goretti make landfall on metropolitan France?Yes
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 28 - Will the U.S. and Canada publicly announce a bilateral agreement that prevents the U.S. from imposing the proposed 50% tariffs?No
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 26 - Will Édouard Philippe visit both Mayotte and Réunion in person?Yes
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 26 - Did the heatwave that began on July 28 include at least 20 days described as 'fortes chaleurs'?Yes
The crowd was 86% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 21 - Will the wildfire south of Rennes near Saint‑Just be declared contained?Yes
The crowd was 90% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 21