Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

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YES if an official press release or statement from the Préfecture d'Ille‑et‑Vilaine or the department's SDIS (SDIS 35), or reporting by AFP, Reuters, Ouest‑France, Le Télégramme, or Franceinfo, explicitly states no later than August 20, 2026 that the wildfire near Saint‑Just is contained or extinguished, meaning it is no longer actively spreading. Statements that clearly refer to a different fire do not count. Informal social‑media posts count only if they are reproduced on the prefecture or SDIS website or carried by one of the named wire services, otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 88%, based on 90 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that it's just days until the resolution, and no official source has confirmed containment yet, it's unlikely they'll declare it managed by the 20th. Very risky to bet on a yes here.

72%
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27%
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63%
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35%
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