Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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74%
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YES if, no later than September 1, 2026, Folarin Balogun’s player registration is recorded as moved to another professional club, either by a permanent transfer or by a loan where the receiving club holds his registration, as evidenced by an official club or league registration statement. Official evidence includes statements from AS Monaco, the acquiring club, or the Ligue de Football Professionnel (LFP), and independent news agencies such as AFP, Reuters, or L'Équipe may be used as corroboration. Agreements in principle that state a future effective registration date after September 1, 2026 resolve NO, and social-media-only posts do not count unless mirrored by an official club or league statement.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 74%, based on 30 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledBalogun is likely to leave Monaco before the deadline. With only days left and mounting transfer rumors, an official announcement seems imminent.

94%
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50%
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33%
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42%
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62%
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33%
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