Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?

73%
+1% last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h
YES if between 08:01:05 UTC on October 27, 2026 and no later than December 15, 2026 (inclusive) Minister Françoise Gatel publicly announces she is convening a meeting described as "réunir toutes les parties prenantes" to find solutions for the status of Corsica, and either the ministry publishes an official date, time and agenda for that meeting within that window, or the meeting is held within that window and the ministry or Matignon publishes minutes or a communique, or the meeting is reported by AFP, Franceinfo, or Le Monde. Otherwise NO. • The announcement must be on‑the‑record (a ministerial statement or a press release on the ministry's official channel or Matignon). • Resolution requires either an official date/time/agenda published by the ministry during the window, or the meeting takes place during the window and is followed by ministry/Matignon minutes or a communique, or reporting by AFP, Franceinfo, or Le Monde. • Source: Ministry of Territorial Planning, Matignon, AFP, Franceinfo, Le Monde.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 76%, based on 68 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settled
73%
+1% last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h

94%
Stable · last 24h

95%
+1% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h
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