Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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YES if contemporaneous public reporting (preferably campaign announcements from Édouard Philippe, the local prefectures, AFP, or franceinfo) shows he physically arrived in and was present on the ground in Mayotte on at least one date between August 21, 2026 and August 25, 2026 inclusive, AND also physically arrived in and was present on the ground in Réunion on at least one date in that same inclusive range. Remote or virtual appearances do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 78%, based on 18 predictions.
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82%
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64%
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27%
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