France
Live prediction markets about France. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
74%
crowd accuracy
286/385
right calls
46
open questions
Biggest miss
Will Bigflo & Oli’s €100,000 ZEvent donation be publicly listed as received?
NoThe crowd was 95% sure, and they got it wrong.
Hot right now
Will a bill be filed to ban or penalize deliberate lies in politics?
The crowd's YES odds since Sep 7
17%
Yes
Open questions46
- Will the PS–Place publique primary rules explicitly allow Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin to run?Closes Oct 31 · Results Dec 195 predictions21%Yes
- Will an official date be announced for new municipal elections in Noisy‑le‑Sec?Closes Nov 30 · Results Dec 183 predictions73%Yes
- Will fewer than 100,000 electricity customers in mainland France be without power?Awaiting result415 predictions72%Yes
- Will France proceed with merging Paris and its Petite Couronne into a single Greater Paris metropolis by end of 2026?Results Dec 31326 predictions27%Yes
- Will any mainland French département, coastal zone, or the national 'FRANCE' area be on 'Vigilance orange' (heightened alert) or 'Vigilance rouge' (severe alert) for rain‑flooding on October 25?Results Oct 26318 predictions90%Yes
- Will 'Le casse du siècle' by Sarah Knafo be #1 on the Edistat best‑selling books in France ranking?Results Oct 30274 predictions28%Yes
- Will the French Prime Minister hold a meeting with party leaders, union reps, and representatives of high‑school and university students to discuss the October 17 unrest?Results Oct 27235 predictions86%Yes
- Will a formal judicial investigation be opened that names Marine Le Pen over her 'enfiler son costard en kevlar' remark?Results Nov 14182 predictions8%Yes
- Will 'Chere debbie' by Freida McFadden and Laura Bourgeois be #1 on the Edistat best‑selling books in France on November 6?Results Nov 6143 predictions67%Yes
- Will "Le fondateur" be in Edistat's top 5 on November 6?Results Nov 6119 predictions36%Yes
- Will France’s government complete the migration of its National Health platform to a sovereign cloud by end of 2026?Results Jan 1547 predictions65%Yes
- Will France complete the migration of at least 2 million government workstations to Linux by end of 2026?Results Jan 119 predictions65%Yes
How it turned out385
- Will the official first‑round ballot for the Parti Socialiste primary include exactly five named candidates?Yes
The crowd was 87% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 10 - Will any metropolitan French department, coastal zone, or the national 'FRANCE' roll-up be at orange or red for violent wind on October 9?No
The crowd was 77% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 10 - Will France google Justin Bieber more than Ingrid Chauvin on October 8?No
The crowd was 89% sure, and they got it wrong.
Oct 10 - Will Philippe Brun appear on the final PS–Place publique primary ballot?No
The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 9 - Will at least one municipal police officer seen in the 2025 bodycam video be placed under formal criminal investigation ('mis en examen') or be criminally charged?No
The crowd was 64% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 9 - Will the PS or Place publique announce at least two additional televised debates before the primary?Yes
The crowd was 59% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 9 - Will Raphaël Glucksmann publicly withdraw from the Socialist primary?No
The crowd was 90% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 9 - Will Ségolène Royal be on the Socialist Party's first‑round primary ballot?Yes
The crowd was 88% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 9 - Will Édouard Philippe appear on screen and speak during France 2's 'L'Heure de vérité' on October 8?Yes
The crowd was 95% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 9 - Will any wildfire in metropolitan France burn at least 500 hectares?No
The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 9