Will Ségolène Royal be on the Socialist Party's first‑round primary ballot?

🤖 Context

Resolves YES if, by the resolution date, Ségolène Royal's name (with or without diacritics) appears on the official list of candidates or on the ballot used for the first‑round vote in the Socialist Party primary held 9–10 October 2026, as published by the primary organisers or the Parti socialiste, or as clearly reported by major news agencies such as AFP, Franceinfo, or Le Monde. If the primary is cancelled or replaced so that no first‑round ballot takes place on 9–10 October 2026, the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 79%, based on 28 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

79%

Predictions made

28

Credits staked

1,000

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 6, 2026

Closes

Sep 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 9, 2026

Resolution source

franceinfo.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 79% and NO 21%, based on 28 predictions and 1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against franceinfo.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Ségolène Royal be on the Socialist Party's first‑round primary ballot?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Ségolène Royal be on the Socialist Party's first‑round primary ballot?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.