Will Raphaël Glucksmann publicly withdraw from the Socialist primary?

🤖 Context

YES if Raphaël Glucksmann issues a clear, public withdrawal of his candidacy on or before 07:59 on October 9, 2026, either via a campaign statement or an interview/press release in which he explicitly says he withdraws or abandons his candidacy. The withdrawal must be reported by major news outlets (AFP, Franceinfo, Le Monde) or published on his campaign or official channels. If the Socialist primary is cancelled before that deadline, this market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 17%, based on 45 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

17%

Predictions made

45

Credits staked

1,302

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 6, 2026

Closes

Sep 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 9, 2026

Resolution source

franceinfo.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 17% and NO 83%, based on 45 predictions and 1.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against franceinfo.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Raphaël Glucksmann publicly withdraw from the Socialist primary?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Raphaël Glucksmann publicly withdraw from the Socialist primary?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.