How the markets that settled that day resolved: the odds, the verdict, and what the crowd got right or wrong.
Settled
60
Crowd right
81%
Upsets
2
How we count
The crowd = real players' bets only (bots excluded); questions no player bet on aren't scored. Crowd right: the side above 50% won (50/50 calls excluded). Upset: the crowd was at least 75% sure and wrong. Full accuracy report
“Deadline passed: no new American sanctions have been announced explicitly related to the attack on the Saudi pipeline. The sanctions taken against actors linked to Iran concerned other networks and motives. The specific criterion of the market is therefore not met: NO.”
“The US has been imposing broad sanctions on Iran’s oil, weapons, and cyber operations networks, as well as threatening secondary sanctions on countries trading with Iran,”
