Will FURIA fail to reach the Worlds 2026 knockout stage?

85%
Stable · last 24h

57%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 21The market resolves yes if, by 11:59 PM CEST on 20 September 2026, María Jesús Ruiz is an active contestant on Telecinco's Supervivientes All Stars 3, meaning she has not been officially eliminated, expelled, withdrawn, or otherwise removed and remains eligible to win. She was announced as a contestant on 1 September 2026, was reported taking part in a gala confrontation on 16 September, and was still competing when coverage described sanctions involving her at a later gala held on 22 September 2026. Because she was actively competing on 22 September and is a regular contestant rather than an ineligible captain, she was still an active and eligible contestant on 20 September 2026, so the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled57%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 57% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: - Premise (Mediaset Infinity, 2026-09-01): María Jesús Ruiz fue confirmada como la octava concursante de ‘SV All Stars’ 3. Source explicitly calls her a “nueva concursante”. → She entered the 2026 season as a regular contestant. (https://www.mediasetinfinity.es/...) - Premise (El Mundo, 2026-09-10): En la edición 2026 los únicos “capitanes” son Marta Peñate y Rubén Torres y “no optan al premio final”; además, las galas de Jorge Javier son los martes y jueves, y los domingos presenta Sandra Barneda. → Only those two are ineligible to win; regular concursantes (like María Jesús) are eligible. Also provides the weekly schedule. (https://www.elmundo.es/...) - Premise (Lecturas, 2026-09-16): Durante una gala, Lecturas relata un enfrentamiento entre Marta Peñate y María Jesús; la llama “concursante”, salió de la palapa y volvió cuando el presentador se lo pidió. → She was actively competing mid‑September and had not been removed. (https://www.lecturas.com/...) - Premise (Semana, updated 2026-09-23 13:13): La organización impone un castigo a Yulen Pereira y a María Jesús Ruiz por saltarse normas; Jorge Javier les comunica que serán penalizados. También se apunta que la próxima expulsión será el jueves 24 de septiembre. → María Jesús seguía siendo concursante en la “última gala” previa al 23/09. (https://www.semana.es/...) - Inference (from El Mundo schedule + Semana timing): With Jorge hosting Tuesday/Thursday galas and Semana noting the next is Thu 24/09, the “última gala” with the sanction occurred on Tue 22/09. → María Jesús was an active contestant on 22/09/2026, i.e., after 20/09. - Conclusion: Since she was still competing on 22/09, it’s impossible she had been irreversibly eliminated/expelled/withdrawn by 20/09 23:59 CEST. As a regular contestant (not a captain), she remained eligible to win on that date. Therefore, as of 11:59 PM CEST on 20 September 2026, she was an active contestant.
Source: mediasetinfinity.esSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith 17 days to go, María Jesús Ruiz is still in the game. Given the recent eliminations, it's likely she'll remain active by the deadline.

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