🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 26 · Results Oct 27
Will Iran and Saudi Arabia announce Iran-mediated talks between Riyadh and the Houthis?
27%
-5% last 24h
674 bets · 22.3K credits5
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PoliticsOpened Sep 10 · Results Sep 24
Will Raphaël Glucksmann poll ahead of Gabriel Attal on September 25?
31%
Stable · last 24h
📊 562 bettors💎 18.5K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 24🤖 Context
The market asks us to use the topmost row of the 'Main voting‑intention' table on the Wikipedia page 'Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election' as it appears no later than 00:00 CEST on 25 September 2026, and to answer yes only if Raphaël Glucksmann's headline numeric percentage is strictly greater than Gabriel Attal's. The topmost row at that deadline is an OpinionWay poll with fieldwork 9 to 10 September 2026, where Glucksmann has no numeric percentage (a dash) and Attal is listed at 8%. Because Glucksmann does not have a numeric percentage and therefore is not strictly greater than Attal, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No31%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 69% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: Raphaël Glucksmann's numeric polling percentage strictly greater than Gabriel Attal's numeric percentage in the single topmost row of the 'Main voting‑intention' table on the cited Wikipedia page as it appears at the Resolution Date (2026-09-25T00:00:00+02:00). Target: the topmost (most recent) poll row. Observed topmost row in supplied data: OpinionWay (fieldwork 9–10 Sep 2026) — Raphaël Glucksmann = '-' (no numeric percentage), Gabriel Attal = 8. Rule: if one candidate has a numeric percentage and the other is blank/dash, the numeric value is treated as ahead. Therefore Glucksmann is not strictly greater than Attal in the topmost row → NO.
Source: en.wikipedia.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 31%
- Predictions made
- 562
- Credits staked
- 18,512
- Comments
- 4
- Opened
- Sep 10, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 24, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 24, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- en.wikipedia.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 4 comments
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