Worlds: Will Movistar KOI beat T1 in their Swiss-stage best-of-3?

17%
-5% last 24h

57%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 23The market required that at 10:00 CEST on 23 September 2026 Vincent Blier still be an active contestant on TF1's Koh-Lanta All Stars, meaning he had not been definitively eliminated, withdrawn, or medically evacuated. Episode 5, broadcast on 22 September 2026, ended with a three-way tie of two votes each against Camille, Vincent and Charlotte, and on the revote Charlotte was eliminated, so Vincent remained in the game. Because he had not been eliminated, withdrawn, or medevaced by 10:00 CEST on 23 September 2026, the condition is met and the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled57%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 57% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: - Premise (programme-tv.net, 2026-09-22): The episode 5 recap states the first council vote ended in a triple tie (two votes against Camille, two against Vincent, two against Charlotte), and on the revote Charlotte was eliminated. Inference: Vincent was not the person eliminated in episode 5. Conclusion: As of the end of the 22 Sept broadcast, Vincent had not been definitively eliminated/withdrawn/medevaced. - Premise (programme.tv, 2026-09-22): A separate recap of episode 5 likewise reports the triple tie including two votes against Vincent, followed by Charlotte’s elimination on the second ballot. Inference: This independently corroborates that Vincent remained in the game after the 22 Sept episode. - Inference to the asked time: The status to check is 10:00 CEST on 23 Sept 2026 (the morning after the 22 Sept episode). Since the only elimination event reported up to that point removed Charlotte and not Vincent, he had not been definitively eliminated, withdrawn, or medically evacuated by 10:00 CEST on 23 Sept 2026. Therefore he was still an active contestant at that time.
Source: programme-tv.netSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledHe will stay because he is in a majority alliance with the yellows.
Given the current season's intensity and Vincent's strategic play, I think he'll still be in the competition by the 23rd. He's got the skills to stay in the game.

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