ScienceOpened Sep 20 · Results Sep 24

Will Indonesia have an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or higher?

22%

Stable · last 24h

📊 217 bettors💎 6.6K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Sep 24

🤖 Context

To resolve yes the USGS had to record at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or higher with origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on 21 September 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on 24 September 2026, and with an epicenter in Indonesia. The USGS lists no events that meet that magnitude, time window, and location. Because there were zero qualifying earthquakes the market resolves to no.

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How this market resolved

22%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 78% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: Market resolves YES if the USGS catalog lists >=1 event with magnitude >= 5.6 whose origin time is on or after 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00 and strictly before 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00 and whose epicenter the USGS places in Indonesia. Target window: 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00 through (exclusive) 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00. Observed value(s): The USGS catalog query using those exact parameters (starttime=2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00, endtime=2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00, minmagnitude=5.6, bbox minlat=-11,maxlat=6,minlon=95,maxlon=141) returned 0 matching earthquake(s). Comparison: 0 matching events < 1 required, so the condition is not met. Conclusion: NO.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov