📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 18
Will Spain's Defence Ministry send a formal written reply to Judge María Tardón about whether Moroccan military ships entered Spanish waters off Ceuta?
71%
Stable · last 24h
15 bets · 581 credits1
Details →United States Department of Defense
Live prediction markets about United States Department of Defense. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
79%
crowd accuracy
19/24
right calls
2
open questions
Biggest miss
Will there be a public acknowledgement that an AI-assisted analysis contributed to the intelligence that nearly prompted action against the Chinese ship?
NoThe crowd was 76% sure, and they got it wrong.
Hot right now
Will Spain's Defence Ministry send a formal written reply to Judge María Tardón about whether Moroccan military ships entered Spanish waters off Ceuta?
The crowd's YES odds since Oct 21
71%
Yes
Open questions2
How it turned out25
- Will U.S. and Saudi forces carry out coordinated strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq between July 30 and August 5, 2026?No
The crowd was 68% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 10 - Will U.S. forces fire on at least one merchant vessel trying to breach a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports on or after July 25, 2026?No
The crowd was 77% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 2 - Will U.S. forces destroy a bridge or a power plant in Iran in response to an Iranian attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz before July 30, 2026?No
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 1 - Will the US carry out an armed strike on Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz before July 29, 2026?No
The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 1 - Will U.S. forces carry out strikes on Iranian military sites in the Gulf region before July 31, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 1