Will U.S. forces fire on at least one merchant vessel trying to breach a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports on or after July 25, 2026?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Department of Defense posts a press release on its official website defense.gov dated on or before 6:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026 that explicitly states U.S. forces fired upon one or more merchant vessels attempting to breach a U.S.-declared blockade of Iranian ports and that the incident(s) occurred on or after July 25, 2026. If that DoD press release on defense.gov is corrected before that time to say the incident occurred before July 25, resolve NO. News reports, social posts, or third-party summaries alone do not qualify.

Key facts

Crowd probability

23%

Predictions made

267

Credits staked

6,589

Comments

1

Opened

Jul 25, 2026

Closes

Jul 25, 2026

Resolved

Aug 2, 2026

Outcome

No