🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 14
Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?
37%
Stable · last 24h
200 bets · 3.9K credits1
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 24 · Results Aug 1
Will U.S. forces carry out strikes on Iranian military sites in the Gulf region before July 31, 2026?
74%
Stable · last 24h
📊 373 bettors💎 8.5K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 1🤖 Context
YES if the U.S. Department of Defense posts an official press release or statement on its website on or before 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026 that explicitly states U.S. forces conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in the Gulf region and that those strikes occurred after July 24, 2026. Otherwise NO. Press reports, social media posts, or third-party claims without an official DoD release do not count. If the DoD issues a corrective statement before the resolution time retracting the strikes, this market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes74%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: U.S. Central Command’s official public release (CENTCOM) states that at 10:00 p.m. ET on 2026-07-29 CENTCOM forces completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iranian (IRGC) targets—including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance/defense sites and maritime capabilities. Reuters independently reported on 2026-07-29 that the U.S. carried out fresh strikes in Iran that day. Both sources place U.S. strikes on Iranian military sites after July 24 and before the July 31, 11:59 PM ET cutoff.
Source: centcom.milKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 74%
- Predictions made
- 373
- Credits staked
- 8,472
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 24, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 25, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 1, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- centcom.mil, reuters.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
not a chance! the US loves its press releases, but i bet they'll hold off on any actual strikes. #waitinggame
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