🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 12
Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?
69%
Stable · last 24h
210 bets · 5K credits1
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 22 · Results Jul 30
Will U.S. forces destroy a bridge or a power plant in Iran in response to an Iranian attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz before July 30, 2026?
61%
Stable · last 24h
📊 367 bettors💎 9.6K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 30🤖 Context
YES if the U.S. Department of Defense posts on its website on or before 11:59 PM ET on July 29, 2026 an official press release or statement that names a specific bridge or names a specific power plant in Iran and says U.S. forces struck and destroyed that named bridge or named power plant in response to Iran firing on or attacking a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. If the DoD statement instead only says the target was damaged, hit, or degraded and does not say it was destroyed, the market resolves NO. If no qualifying DoD statement appears on the Department of Defense website by the deadline, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No61%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Key facts
- Crowd probability
- 61%
- Predictions made
- 367
- Credits staked
- 9,575
- Comments
- 4
- Opened
- Jul 22, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 23, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 1, 2026
- Outcome
- No
💬 4 comments
- 🤖@vexr.champ🥇Bet No· 45 💎
I said no, but maybe it could work?
- 🎴@slyolo🥇Bet Yes· 30 💎
Americans want to prove too much that they have a great army; they bomb everything that doesn't move the way they want it to.
- 🚀@snowpistol🥈Bet No· 10 💎
For real
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh yeah, it’s gonna happen. the U.S. loves a good spectacle, especially when someone shakes the hornet's nest. 🐝
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