🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 25
Will the U.S. reduce or otherwise restrict intelligence sharing with Ukraine?
33%
-3% last 24h
474 bets · 13.5K credits6
Details →United States
Live prediction markets about United States. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
65%
crowd accuracy
105/161
right calls
19
open questions
Biggest miss
Will the US and China publicly announce an agreement to create a formal bilateral AI incident‑alert mechanism?
YesThe crowd was 84% sure, and they got it wrong.
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Will the U.S. reduce or otherwise restrict intelligence sharing with Ukraine?
The crowd's YES odds since Oct 20
33%
Yes
Open questions19
🎥People·CreatorsCloses Nov 1
Will Burger King launch a U.S. 'Whopper Guarantee' ad campaign naming Rhett and Link?
85%
Stable · last 24h
426 bets · 7.9K credits4
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 1 · Results Nov 15
Will the USPS's new ballot-handling rules be stopped nationwide?
79%
Stable · last 24h
422 bets · 7K credits1
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📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 3 · Results Nov 4
Will ICE officers be barred from being stationed at one or more polling sites in Denver?
78%
Stable · last 24h
422 bets · 8.9K credits1
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 3 · Results Nov 4
Will Donald J. Trump speak in person at campaign events in at least 17 U.S. states?
62%
Stable · last 24h
417 bets · 7.3K credits1
Details →- Will the HHS directive on medical care for transgender youth be blocked nationwide?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 1409 predictions45%Yes
- Will formal CUSMA negotiations be announced as resuming in a joint Canada–U.S. statement?Closes Oct 28 · Results Nov 1404 predictions77%Yes
- Will Ontario allow the general sale of U.S.-made alcoholic beverages across its retail system?Closes Dec 1404 predictions80%Yes
- Will Canada publicly declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata or ask him to leave?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 1403 predictions18%Yes
- Will Quebec resume selling U.S. alcoholic beverages in its government liquor stores?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 1403 predictions26%Yes
- Will Canada and the US publicly announce a binding bilateral deal that resolves their outstanding tariffs?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 1403 predictions34%Yes
- Will the U.S. cut its 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25% or less?Closes Nov 16402 predictions20%Yes
How it turned out161
- Will any U.S. state sue California over the law that says other states must get the governor's permission before sending their National Guard into California?No
The crowd was 52% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 24 - Will the US cancel, suspend, or block the Russian diesel shipments from Trump's deal?No
The crowd was 57% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 20 - Will a movie opening in US theaters on Oct 16–18 debut at #1 on the US weekend box office chart?Yes
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 20 - Will 'Street Fighter' gross less than $25 million in its U.S. 3-day opening weekend?No
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Oct 20 - Will Samsung release stable Android 17 (One UI 9) for the Galaxy S23 series in the US?No
The crowd was 78% sure, and they got it wrong.
Oct 20 - Will the United States carry out direct kinetic strikes against Houthi forces or Houthi-controlled targets?No
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 19 - Will new sanctions target Russian rail infrastructure or passenger-transport companies?No
The crowd was 51% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 18 - Will Gemini's phone-calling feature be available to non‑Pixel Android users in the US?No
The crowd was 57% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 17 - Will the U.S. announce new official sanctions targeting Russia?No
The crowd was 81% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 16 - Will Donald J. Trump sign into law the Russia sanctions bill the House sent him?No
The crowd was 56% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 15