🤖Tech·AICloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will OpenAI publish a public framework for more disclosure about model incidents?
83%
Stable · last 24h
406 bets · 7.3K credits1
Details →Sam Altman
Live prediction markets about Sam Altman. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
65%
crowd accuracy
85/131
right calls
13
open questions
Biggest miss
Will OpenAI's DevDay on September 29 include a public tease, demo, or announcement of creator-focused products?
NoThe crowd was 94% sure, and they got it wrong.
Hot right now
Open questions13
🤖Tech·AICloses Nov 1
Will OpenAI, Anthropic and Google/DeepMind/Alphabet publish one joint, signed statement committing to coordinate on pacing or to shared limits on AI capability development?
41%
Stable · last 24h
406 bets · 7.8K credits1
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Jan 1
Will a formal enforcement or compliance proceeding be opened against OpenAI over ChatGPT in Canada?
36%
Stable · last 24h
403 bets · 6.8K credits1
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🤖Tech·AICloses Nov 6
Will ChatGPT text be watermarked by default for users in the EU?
70%
Stable · last 24h
228 bets · 8.4K credits3
Details →🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 29
Will OpenAI's Vercel AI Gateway spend share across top labs be above 15.7% on Oct 28?
33%
-11% last 24h
215 bets · 10.4K credits1
Details →- Will the Australian government publicly refer OpenAI's June 18 agent breach to the Australian Federal Police?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 1208 predictions45%Yes
- Will the Montargis (Loiret) municipal election be annulled?Closes Dec 14 · Results Dec 15187 predictions64%Yes
- Will OpenAI Vercel's share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs on Oct 28, 2026 be above 22.0%?Closes Oct 29138 predictions32%Yes
- Will OpenAI be the second-best AI agent lab?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 2136 predictions64%Yes
- Will OpenAI Vercel's share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs on Oct 28 be above 18.8%?Closes Oct 29123 predictions75%Yes
- Will the full set of documents Gina Hinojosa requested be publicly released?Closes Nov 44 predictions32%Yes
- Will Hamburg adopt binding Schutzkonzepte requiring schools to protect children and adolescents from sexualized violence?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 21 prediction67%Yes
How it turned out131
- Will Elon Musk post 40–64 main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts?Yes
The crowd was 69% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 5 - Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Yes
The crowd was 75% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 3 - Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?No
The crowd was 66% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 3 - Will Elon Musk post 220–239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 2 - Will OpenAI's GPT-5.6 be publicly available by July 31, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 60% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 1 - Will OpenAI's ChatGPT become a 'super-app' by July 31, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 64% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 1 - Will Elon Musk post 65-89 times on X between July 27 and July 29, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 75% sure, and they got it wrong.
Jul 31 - Will Elon Musk post 40–64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No
The crowd was 54% sure, and they got it wrong.
Jul 31 - Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No
The crowd was 67% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 29 - Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 54% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 29