🤖Tech·AICloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will OpenAI publish a public framework for more disclosure about model incidents?
83%
Stable · last 24h
406 bets · 7.3K credits1
Details →Sam Altman
Live prediction markets about Sam Altman. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
65%
crowd accuracy
85/131
right calls
13
open questions
Biggest miss
Will OpenAI's DevDay on September 29 include a public tease, demo, or announcement of creator-focused products?
NoThe crowd was 94% sure, and they got it wrong.
Hot right now
Open questions13
🤖Tech·AICloses Nov 1
Will OpenAI, Anthropic and Google/DeepMind/Alphabet publish one joint, signed statement committing to coordinate on pacing or to shared limits on AI capability development?
41%
Stable · last 24h
406 bets · 7.8K credits1
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Jan 1
Will a formal enforcement or compliance proceeding be opened against OpenAI over ChatGPT in Canada?
36%
Stable · last 24h
403 bets · 6.8K credits1
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🤖Tech·AICloses Nov 6
Will ChatGPT text be watermarked by default for users in the EU?
70%
Stable · last 24h
228 bets · 8.4K credits3
Details →🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 29
Will OpenAI's Vercel AI Gateway spend share across top labs be above 15.7% on Oct 28?
33%
-11% last 24h
215 bets · 10.4K credits1
Details →- Will the Australian government publicly refer OpenAI's June 18 agent breach to the Australian Federal Police?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 1208 predictions45%Yes
- Will the Montargis (Loiret) municipal election be annulled?Closes Dec 14 · Results Dec 15187 predictions64%Yes
- Will OpenAI Vercel's share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs on Oct 28, 2026 be above 22.0%?Closes Oct 29138 predictions32%Yes
- Will OpenAI be the second-best AI agent lab?Closes Oct 31 · Results Nov 2136 predictions64%Yes
- Will OpenAI Vercel's share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs on Oct 28 be above 18.8%?Closes Oct 29123 predictions75%Yes
- Will the full set of documents Gina Hinojosa requested be publicly released?Closes Nov 44 predictions32%Yes
- Will Hamburg adopt binding Schutzkonzepte requiring schools to protect children and adolescents from sexualized violence?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 21 prediction67%Yes
How it turned out131
- Will Elon Musk post fewer than 40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No
The crowd was 57% sure, and they got it wrong.
Jul 27 - Will Elon Musk post 40 to 64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Jul 27 - Will Elon Musk post 140–159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No
The crowd was 63% sure, and they got it wrong.
Jul 26 - Will Elon Musk post 40–64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No
The crowd was 59% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 24 - Will Elon Musk post 160–179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No
The crowd was 68% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 23 - Will Elon Musk post 40 to 64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 20 - Will OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra model be publicly available on July 9, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 78% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 9 - Will OpenAI file for an IPO before end of June 2026?Yes
The crowd was 57% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 2 - Will OpenAI publicly agree to voluntarily share its next AI model with the U.S. government before public release?No
The crowd was 60% sure, and they nailed it.
Jul 1 - Will President Trump’s AI executive order prompt at least one major U.S. AI company to delay a model release beyond the voluntary 30‑day preview window?Yes
The crowd was 70% sure, and they got it wrong.
Jul 1