Donald Trump

PersonPolls

Live prediction markets about Donald Trump. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.

Crowd track record

48%

of calls the crowd got right

markets settled

The crowd called 12 of 25 settled markets correctly.

Open questions

No open questions on this topic right now — check back soon.

How it turned out

Will Trump's approval top 43% on Aug 5, 2026?No

The crowd was 55% sure, and they nailed it.

Aug 6

Will Donald Trump have an approval rating above 40% on August 4, 2026?No

The crowd was 58% sure, and they got it wrong.

Aug 5

Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 10+ times during remarks in Georgia?Yes

The crowd was 75% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 25

Will President Trump's approval rating be above 40% in the next major poll?Yes

The crowd was 72% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 22

Will President Trump's scheduled military strike on July 20, 2026, take place?Yes

The crowd was 60% sure, and they nailed it.

Jul 21

Will President Trump deliver his scheduled prime-time speech on July 16, 2026?Yes

The crowd was 84% sure, and they nailed it.

Jul 17

Will a U.S. District Judge block Trump’s executive order on federal voter list by mid‑July 2026?Yes

The crowd was 60% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 17

Will President Trump announce new defense investments at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit on July 15, 2026?Yes

The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.

Jul 16

Will the U.S. House pass the FY2027 spending bill restoring NIH funding above the Trump administration’s proposed level?No

The crowd was 66% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 16

Will President Trump's approval rating fall below 35% in the July 2026 poll?No

The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 15

Will President Trump release the $5 million judgment to E. Jean Carroll by July 10, 2026?No

The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 11

Will President Trump's approval rating be between 40.2% and 40.4% on July 10, 2026?No

The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 10

Will President Trump announce a new peace initiative with Ukraine at the NATO summit?No

The crowd was 60% sure, and they nailed it.

Jul 9

Will President Trump's July 4th 'Trump rally' on the National Mall be the largest Independence Day celebration in U.S. history?No

The crowd was 68% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 6

Will President Trump nominate a new Supreme Court justice before July 1, 2026?No

The crowd was 53% sure, and they nailed it.

Jul 2

Will President Trump’s AI executive order prompt at least one major U.S. AI company to delay a model release beyond the voluntary 30‑day preview window?Yes

The crowd was 70% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 1

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule by June 30, 2026 on Trump’s birthright citizenship executive order?Yes

The crowd was 75% sure, and they nailed it.

Jul 1

Will Senate GOP Leader John Thune publicly break with Trump on a new issue before June 30, 2026?Yes

The crowd was 59% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jul 1

Will President Trump sign the $70 billion ICE and border enforcement bill into law by June 20, 2026?Yes

The crowd was 58% sure, and they nailed it.

Jun 21

Will NBC or the White House officially release the full unaired footage of Trump’s 'Meet the Press' interview by June 18, 2026?No

The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.

Jun 19

Will Macron and Trump have a formal dinner at Versailles after the G7 summit?Yes

The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.

Jun 18

Will President Trump attend the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Évian (June 15–17, 2026)?Yes

The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.

Jun 18

Will Trump’s approval rating fall below 35% in the next national poll?No

The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jun 17

Will President Trump sign an AI cybersecurity executive order before June 15, 2026?Yes

The crowd was 54% sure, and they got it wrong.

Jun 16

Will the Senate pass the $70 billion ICE/Border Patrol funding bill via reconciliation by June 7, 2026?Yes

The crowd was 73% sure, and they nailed it.

Jun 8

Crowd track record

Open questions

How it turned out

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