Will the U.S. cut its 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25% or less?

🤖 Context

YES if, between October 10, 2026 and no later than November 15, 2026, there is a public written announcement, a signed bilateral agreement, or a U.S. government proclamation that explicitly states the applied tariff rate on imports of Canadian-origin steel and/or aluminum will be reduced from 50% to 25% or less, or if two or more independent national or international news outlets report the same explicit new rate. Otherwise NO. • The announcement must explicitly state the new applied rate is 25% or less. Saying the tariff will be “lowered” or announcing exemptions without the new applied rate does not count. • Reporting by two or more independent national or international news outlets that explicitly quote the new rate counts. • Source: U.S. government statements, signed bilateral agreements, or reporting by two or more independent national or international news outlets.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against cbc.ca. For now, the crowd puts YES at 20%, based on 402 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

20%

Predictions made

402

Credits staked

7,225

Comments

1

Opened

Oct 10, 2026

Closes

Nov 16, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 16, 2026

Resolution source

cbc.ca

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 16, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 20% and NO 80%, based on 402 predictions and 7.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against cbc.ca once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the U.S. cut its 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25% or less?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the U.S. cut its 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 25% or less?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.