Follow the news · October 2, 2026
How the markets that settled that day resolved: the odds, the verdict, and what the crowd got right or wrong.
Settled
189
Crowd right
80%
Upsets
9
How we count
The crowd = real players' bets only (bots excluded); questions no player bet on aren't scored. Crowd right: the side above 50% won (50/50 calls excluded). Upset: the crowd was at least 75% sure and wrong. Full accuracy report
All results189 results
- Big Brother: Will Rick Devens win season 28?Yes
crowd 53% no · 8 players
- Will Jordan Matter run an open-door AMA for at least four continuous hours in the Irving Convention Center fourth-floor lobby at VidSummit on September 30?Yes
crowd 54% yes · 8 players
- Will London's high reach at least 20 °C on 1 October?Yes
crowd 74% yes · 8 players
- Will the European Parliament open a permanent parliamentary office in Ottawa?Yes
crowd 59% yes · 7 players
- La Granja VIP: Will Pablo Montero still be competing on October 1?Yes
crowd 61% yes · 7 players
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series at Truist Park?No
crowd 84% no · 7 players
- Will OpenAI publish a public written investigation or postmortem about the GPT‑Sol 5.6 hacking incident?Yes
crowd 59% yes · 6 players
- Will Mexico City's high be at least 24.0 °C on October 1?Yes
crowd 55% yes · 6 players
- Will Tropical Cyclone Rachel reach Saffir–Simpson Category 2 or higher?Yes
crowd 56% yes · 6 players
- Big Brother: Will Taylor Brown win Big Brother 28?No
crowd 66% no · 6 players
- Will the OECD’s March 2026 interim outlook projection of global GDP growth at 2.9% for 2026 remain unchanged in the OECD’s September 2026 Economic Outlook?Yes
crowd 53% no · 6 players
- Will GPT-5.6 Luna's headline price drop so input tokens cost under $0.20/million or output tokens under $1.20/million?No
crowd 64% yes · 5 players
- Will Tropical Storm Rachel be a hurricane on September 29?Yes
crowd 68% no · 5 players
- Will Alex Saab enter a guilty plea in the U.S. federal money‑laundering case?Yes
crowd 71% yes · 4 players
- Will Enrique Inzunza Cázarez no longer be listed as president of the Senate's Comisión de Estudios Legislativos?Yes
crowd 66% yes · 4 players
- Will the tropical cyclone Polo make landfall on Mexico's mainland coast?Yes
crowd 79% yes · 4 players
- Will Muse be #1 on the US iPhone App Store Top Free chart on October 1?Yes
crowd 62% yes · 4 players
- Will at least one sitting mayor be detained, arrested, or formally charged in connection with 'Operación Enjambre'?Yes
crowd 66% yes · 3 players
- Will Roberto Ramos Alor resign or be removed as IMSS‑Bienestar delegate in Veracruz?No
crowd 59% yes · 3 players
- Will the Sistema Cutzamala be at least 85.00% full on September 30?Yes
crowd 71% yes · 3 players
- Will Tottenham Hotspur announce a stadium naming‑rights deal that gives a third‑party name to the stadium?No
crowd 55% no · 3 players
- Will there be a public acknowledgement that an AI-assisted analysis contributed to the intelligence that nearly prompted action against the Chinese ship?No
crowd 55% yes · 3 players
- Will Mexico's Secretary of Finance appear and participate before the Chamber of Deputies' Plenary on September 30?Yes
crowd 65% yes · 3 players
- Will Toronto's daily high reach at least 27 °C on October 1?No
crowd 57% no · 3 players
- Will Berlin’s daily high reach at least 23 °C on October 1?Yes
crowd 69% yes · 3 players
- Will any Lower Mainland (BC) school district close schools and say it's because of the atmospheric river or storm?No
crowd 65% yes · 3 players
- Will Mexico google Mauricio Ochmann more than Avengers Doomsday on October 1?No
crowd 59% no · 3 players
- Will OpenAI publish a public incident‑response procedure for agent or agentic systems?Yes
crowd 66% no · 2 players
- Will a 'Batch Zero' (early interconnection) notice list at least one 'data center' project?Yes
crowd 53% no · 2 players
- Will Friedrich Merz resign as CDU federal chairman?No
crowd 68% no · 2 players
- Will Celtic remove Martin O'Neill as first-team manager?No
crowd 69% no · 2 players
- Will anywhere in Germany reach at least 30 °C on October 1?No
crowd 57% no · 2 players
- Will any CDU/CSU MP publicly say they'll vote against or abstain from the government's tax reform, or be recorded voting no or abstaining?No
crowd 52% yes · 1 player
- Will the CFDA have a named CEO or interim CEO?Yes
crowd 52% yes · 1 player
- Will the remaining steel trusses/beams at the east (Pasadenaallee) end of Ludwigshafen’s Westbrücke be lifted into their final positions?No
crowd 67% no · 1 player
- Will any public or Catholic school in Southern Ontario close for the full day on October 1 because of the remnants of Hurricane Polo?No
crowd 50% yes · 1 player
- Will Munich record at least 0.1 mm of precipitation?No
crowd 64% yes · 1 player
- Did Cinépolis or Cinemex start the second presale for 'Avengers: Doomsday' on October 2?Yes
crowd 52% no · 1 player