Will the tropical cyclone Polo make landfall on Mexico's mainland coast?

🤖 Context

YES if the circulation center of tropical cyclone Polo is publicly reported to have crossed from over water to over land on Mexico's mainland coast no later than September 30, 2026. Otherwise NO. • Only the cyclone's circulation center (eye or center) crossing the mainland shoreline counts. Crossing onto an offshore island does not count. If the system is no longer referenced as Polo when it reaches the coast, that does not count. • Source: Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA). Other accepted evidence includes the U.S. National Hurricane Center, the relevant state or municipal civil-protection office, or reports from at least two major Mexican news outlets quoting those agencies.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 404 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

40%

Predictions made

404

Credits staked

7,825

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 26, 2026

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 40% and NO 60%, based on 404 predictions and 7.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the tropical cyclone Polo make landfall on Mexico's mainland coast?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the tropical cyclone Polo make landfall on Mexico's mainland coast?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.