🏢Anthropic

Open questions11

🤖Tech·AICloses Nov 1

Will OpenAI, Anthropic and Google/DeepMind/Alphabet publish one joint, signed statement committing to coordinate on pacing or to shared limits on AI capability development?

41%

Stable · last 24h

Yes 41%No 59%

406 bets · 7.8K credits1

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🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Nov 1

Will Anthropic release Opus 6?

25%

Stable · last 24h

Yes 25%No 75%

193 bets · 8.4K credits3

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🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 2

Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab?

67%

Stable · last 24h

Yes 67%No 33%

149 bets · 5.7K credits2

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🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 2

Will Anthropic have the top-ranked AI model?

56%

-1% last 24h

Yes 56%No 44%

123 bets · 4K credits3

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🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 2

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?

34%

-1% last 24h

Yes 34%No 66%

121 bets · 5K credits2

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How it turned out35

• Will Claude Agent SDK usage be billed at Anthropic API rates?

  The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.

  Oct 3
  No
• Will Anthropic have the #1 model in Code Arena | WebDev?

  The crowd was 75% sure, and they nailed it.

  Oct 3
  Yes
• Will Anthropic be #2 on the Code Arena | WebDev labs leaderboard?

  The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.

  Oct 3
  No
• Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21?

  The crowd was 63% sure, and they got it wrong.

  Oct 3
  No
• Will Anthropic have the top model on the Code Arena | WebDev leaderboard?

  The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.

  Oct 2
  Yes
• Will Anthropic apply an identifiable watermark to text outputs from its public models?

  The crowd was 84% sure, and they nailed it.

  Oct 2
  Yes
• Will Claude Agent SDK usage be billed at Anthropic's API rates instead of counting against Claude subscription weekly caps?

  The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.

  Oct 1
  No
• Will Anthropic's market share on OpenRouter be above 2.7%?

  The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.

  Sep 28
  No
• Will Anthropic's market share on OpenRouter (by model author) be above 2.65%?

  The crowd was 55% sure, and they got it wrong.

  Sep 22
  Yes
• Will Anthropic's market share be above 2.85%?

  The crowd was 68% sure, and they nailed it.

  Sep 21
  No

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