Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth and land or splash down?

🤖 Context

YES if, between 09:01:56 UTC on September 26, 2026 and no later than October 10, 2026, an authoritative public source reports that Sophie Adenot completed atmospheric reentry and has landed or splashed down on Earth, otherwise NO. • Reports that she returned before 09:01:56 UTC on September 26, 2026 do not count. • An attempted reentry that is aborted before a confirmed landing or splashdown does not count. • Source: NASA, SpaceX, Reuters, AP or other authoritative public reports.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 89%, based on 426 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

89%

Predictions made

426

Credits staked

15,356

Comments

3

Opened

Sep 26, 2026

Closes

Oct 10, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 11, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 10, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 11, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 89% and NO 11%, based on 426 predictions and 15.4K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth and land or splash down?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth and land or splash down?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.