Will the Falcon 9 for Transporter‑18 clear the pad and lift off from Vandenberg on October 1?

90%
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89%
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YES if booster B1101 touched down at Landing Zone 40 (LZ-40) after the Crew-13 launch on October 1, 2026, otherwise NO. • Only a reported touchdown at Landing Zone 40 counts as YES. • If the booster was expended, landed elsewhere, destroyed on impact, or the launch did not occur with B1101 flown, the market resolves NO. • Source: SpaceX, NASA, or independent news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 89%, based on 228 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledBrrr brrr
That's how it is
Everyone else seems to think so
Given the timeline and the fact that B1101 has successfully landed in the past, I’d bet on a YES for this one. SpaceX typically sets up for solid landings after crewed missions.

90%
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89%
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91%
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88%
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57%
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91%
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