Will the Falcon 9 for Transporter‑18 clear the pad and lift off from Vandenberg on October 1?

🤖 Context

YES if the Falcon 9 vehicle assigned to the Transporter‑18 mission clears the launch mount and lifts off from SLC‑4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base during an attempt on October 1, 2026 at or after 11:18 a.m. PDT, otherwise NO. • An ignition that does not result in the vehicle clearing the pad counts as NO. • Source: SpaceX mission status page, Spaceflight Now, Reuters or AP.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 90%, based on 417 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

90%

Predictions made

417

Credits staked

17,123

Comments

2

Opened

Sep 30, 2026

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

spaceflightnow.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 90% and NO 10%, based on 417 predictions and 17.1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against spaceflightnow.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the Falcon 9 for Transporter‑18 clear the pad and lift off from Vandenberg on October 1?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the Falcon 9 for Transporter‑18 clear the pad and lift off from Vandenberg on October 1?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.